The US S&P 500 index ended down 8.4 per cent last month, while Europe, measured by the MSCI Europe index, fell by 6.1 per cent, and the Nordic region, measured by the MSCI Nordic Countries index, fell by 4.2 per cent. In Norway, the Oslo Stock Exchange Mutual Fund Index ended down 1.1 per cent (all measured in local currency).
Troubled macroeconomy
European economic data weakened sharply in the fourth quarter of 2008. Industrial
production collapsed in November and very few new orders were placed. At the
same time, business confidence surveys indicate that the bottom of the
European recession has not been reached by far.
EU estimates indicate a 1.8 per cent fall in the European gross domestic product (GDP) in 2009. Corresponding estimates from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggest a fall of 2.0 per cent in the GDP. In its latest update for the European market, Citigroup states that the financial players’ conduct and decisions over the past 18 months have been strongly influenced by news linked to macroeconomic factors. There are man indications that this will continue to be the situation in the first part of 2009.
